Nevada Real Estate >> Las Vegas Real Estate Specialist: August 2007

Housing Conditions:

• Foreclosure/Short Sale Listings (8/25/2007): Total Listings (8/25/3007) 27,217; Foreclosures Commenced: 972, 3.6% of all listings; Short Sales: 2316, 8.5% of all listings; Both Foreclosures Commenced AND Short Sales: 420, 1.5% of all listings.
• New Home Sales (July 2007, units sold): 1257 Year Change -48.1% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
• New Home Sales (July 2007, median price): $314,551 Year Change -6.2% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
• Existing Home Sales (July 2007, units sold): 2101 Year Change -40.2%
• Existing Home Sales (July 2007, median price): $278,000 Year Change: -4.1%
• Single Family Residential Building Permits (July 2007): 851 Year Change -45%
• Rental Rate (MLS Monthly Average May 2007): $1546/month Year Change +$297/month

My analysis: The rental market has been consistently rising since November 2006.  Fire sale prices remain attractive to long term investors.  Units sold needs to be monitored with the current mortgage situation at hand.  May see a slight drop.

New Residents/Employment Conditions:

• New Residents (July 2007): 6168, Year Change -12.2%
• Total Employment (June 2007): 942,000, Year Change +2.1%
• Unemployment Rate (June 2007) 4.7%, Year Change +9.3%

My analysis: We need more jobs to continue strong growth. Our employment rate is up from a year ago but still fairly low.

Tourism/Gaming Conditions:

• McCarran Airport Total Passengers (June 2007): 4,157,017 Year Change +6.9%
• Gaming Revenue (June 2007): $789,656,398, Year Change +6.1%
• Visitor Volume (June 2007): 3,677,178, Year Change +2.9%
• Convention Attendance (June 2007): 429,804, Year Change -13.7%
• Hotel/Motel Occupancy (June 2007): 91.9% Year Change +3.7%

My analysis: The gaming/tourism industry is still strong. Convention attendance is down this month but was up month prior! Visitor volume. Airport Passengers & gaming revenue are in sync.

Sources: Salestraq, Home Builder's Research, Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, Nevada State Gaming Control Board, Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles, McCarran International Airport, Las Vegas Convention & Visitor's Authority, Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation

Renee Burrows
Realtor®

Nevada Realty Solutions - Your Dream, Your Investment, You\'re Home!
8942 Spanish Ridge Avenue
Las Vegas, NV 89148
direct: 702-580-1783
fax: 702-995-8237
Renee@ReneeBurrows.com
http://www.ReneeBurrows.com

Fred's post got me wonderin.  I usually attend the Global Gaming Expo and knew it was about the same time as the NAR conference.  I checked the convention calendar and sure enough it does!

The Global Gaming Expo (G2E) will bring just as many attendees as NAR, so for just the two conventions alone there will be 50,000 attendees.  Forget all of the other little conferences!  Room Inventory is only around 133,000 right now.

I did recommend to Fred to google "Vacation Rentals Las Vegas" and gather a group of friends if you are looking for a less expensive alternative.  Also, when searching hotels in Las Vegas, don't forget Henderson!  Green Valley Ranch is about a 30 minute drive down the freeway.  Going the other direction (west) the JW Marriott (pictured left) is a gorgeous property and the Suncoast is right next door and in great proximity to MANY great golf courses, if you were planning to do something silly like that.  I hate golfing, can you tell?  

Many off strip properties have free or low cost transportation to strip areas or the convention center.  Please make sure you look it up or call them and ask about transportation and drop off points/times. 

Just be warned:  the days of inexpensive buffets and cheap entertainment are GONE.  So if you are on a Realtor diet, be prepared.  Fred's wife didn't get the memo :)  Maybe you can just crash some of G2E's awesome parties MUhahahahaha! (just kidding!)

LVCA Visitor Stats 

There are 28,000+ listings in our MLS and currently just slightly less than 2000 sales a month. There are too many what I call "Let's go Fishing, You Bring the Chum" listings.

Here is the deal, they are now a majority short sales and NOD's. Don't the banks allow some leniency in a short sale or NOD process if the house is listed? (Question for Broker Bryant). IOW, the banks hold off on foreclosing or it makes it for a better short sale deal if the time on market is longer.

NOW, if I can't get in these (because of tenants or strict showing instructions) or have the list agents even return my phone calls (5 days/5 calls) when I have a client ready to write an offer subject to interior inspection because of the showing instructions (tenant involved: DND), HOW THE HECK CAN THESE LISTINGS BE SOLD?

I think it is IMPERATIVE for banks to have the listings "shopped" for ease of showing, service of agent on top of all the other stuff a BPO agent does.

For my close, this is so frustrating right now! I wish agents would take listings they intend to sell and prequalify their sellers. Not just allow them to run the system where they can "keep" their home for foreclosing in the near future by showing it as "listed"

BAH!

It was reported on KLAS Channel 8 yesterday that the Clark County School Police have been given a larger jurisdiction, they are now allowed to patrol the streets. They are now allowed to enforce traffic laws which will hopefully cut down the number of speeders through school zones.

On a side note, with less than a week before school starts, the district still needs 18 new police officers and 393 new teachers. OUCH!

To View CCSD press releases click here.

We can search for rental homes/condos that allow your pets!

If you are having a hard time finding that rental, please contact us and we will be happy to set you up on your search today!

Our rental referral services are free of charge to you, the renter, as the landlords pay us to find you the right home!

Please do not hesitate to contact us. We will process your request as quickly as we can. Be patient because it can take some time to return a phone call!

You can start your search right here today, or we can manually enter your custom search when you contact us!

Ahh a splendid night as the moist monsoon air pushes it's way in the desert.

Such a perfect ending to a stressful day. You can feel the moisture fill the air and see threatening dark clouds and lightening strikes (when it is dark) from miles and miles away. It is always a great change from the unforgiving hot desert sun.

We receive on average 70% of our rainfall from monsoon rains. These rains are hit and miss but when you get hit, you REALLY get soaked!

Just some friendly monsoon season reminders:

This is the desert and we are still in a drought. Do not forget to adjust your automatic sprinklers to conserve water. Take advantage of Southern Nevada Authorities rebates & incentives for rain sensors or smart irrigation controllers.

Remember NOT to cross roadways that are flooded as desert flooding can be swift and dangerous. Be aware of what areas are prone to flooding.

Sit back and take it all in: that quick break from the heat!

Tip compliance is basically a deal made with employers and the IRS for tipped employees to pay taxes on their tips. Here are gaming industry guidelines.

While some may disagree with me, tip compliance rates are generally lower than the tip earner actually receives. So, on paper, the tipped earner is realistically making more than they show. IE: They bring home more cash and their effective income tax rate is less.

The tightening of credit will definitely hurt the tipped worker on a tip compliance program because it is harder for them to qualify for a loan with full income documentation.

When you go to Las Vegas next time, take a look around the casino and realize who is tipped: the card dealer, bartender, cocktail waitress, valet driver, bell person, busser, food runner, floor person, cage employee, etc. Those are the people who have a real need for housing.

They will have choices to make if they want to buy a home since the ease of the stated has gone by the wayside:

• Increase tip compliance &/or
  
• Save a large amount of money for a down payment &/or
  
• Have a parent co-sign the loan

All the Best,

The Las Vegas Valley Residential Rental Market Remains Strong after a large spike in May, small dip in June and now a small spike in July.

Long term residential rental landlords are winning in this market!

The median rental price is up $97/month since January. The average rental price is up $251/month since January. The current median price is $1297/month and the current average price is $1546/month. There is only 2.3 months total inventory (8/12/2007) in the Las Vegas Valley MLS.

Expect more pressure on the rental market & prices as subprime money runs out, more people moving to the valley and foreclosures spike.

Compare the rental inventory graph on the left to resale graphs in July.

If you are looking for a rental home: we provide free listings and search assistance. Please give us a call today to get started on your search!

All the Best,

Undoubtedly the demise of the stated income/subprime loan will hurt the local Las Vegas area real estate market.

Read the following:

• Las Vegas Mortgage Industry: Jumbo Rates up Big by Rey Gallegos
• Goodbye My Friend Stated by Matthew Blum
• Search Subprime on Active Rain
• Escrow 911: Subprime Fallout and the Potential Impact on the Las Vegas Valley Rebound by lil ole me last February!
• Help! My ARM is Adjusting and I don't have the Equity to Roll in Closing Costs by Tom Burris
  

More products have gone belly up since my post in February and the impact is becoming more clear. There are going to be winners and there are going to be losers in this market. Here are my lists:

The Losers:

• Sellers who have no equity because values are declining with the growing short sale and foreclosure market. Competition to reduce prices is ongoing because banks need to reduce inventory and minimize losses. Inventory (competition) is rising daily. Jumbo (over 417K I believe) sellers will really feel pain.
• Buyers who need Jumbo, Stated, 100% or Credit Risk loans. Buyers who also bought in new construction projects (like high rises) years ago and speculated on easy money to remain at the time of their close.
• Real Estate Professionals who specialize only in the resale/new construction residential markets.
  
• People who bought in the last three years and who were expecting to refinance a loan. Declining values are preventing appraisals from coming in the amounts they need to refi.
• Investors who bought high, hedged on a quick flip and are experiencing severe negative cash flow
• Renters will experience a significant rise in rental rates as potential buyers are priced out of their potential purchase. Economic conditions and steady population growth point to this all the way around.

The Winners:

• Buyers who have a significant amount of cash down, fall within FHA or VA guidelines, can pay with all cash, can fit within a conforming loan
• Real Estate Professionals who have great mortgage product knowledge, realize what markets are booming and can adapt
• Investors who have capital and are prepared for a long hold
• Landlords will be able to make more money in a rental market that is under incredible amounts of pressure due to supply/demand.
  

Back awhile ago Tom Burris and I would hang in a mortgage forum designed for people to understand credit. I remember people coming in and wanting to wait for "prices to go down" before they buy using that 100% (sometimes stated) product. I remember giving generic advice regularly to buy if you can afford the payments. I would explain even if prices go down, you are speculating that rates are going to stay the same. I always used the example that if prices go down 10% and rates go up 1% you are paying just about the same payment.

Well, here we are and now we are seeing the prices go down (not quite 10%, YET) and we are seeing rates skyrocket for 100%, jumbos, stated, (non conforming products, etc).

Las Vegas workers & real estate will suffer. We have so many regular people in need of (and can afford) the stated product of yore: self employed and tip compliance workers ~ those people who were waiting, anticipating, speculating on lower prices ~ can no longer afford the home they have been dreaming of. Now they have to save and ride out the foreclosure/short sale storm and just wait for these products to come back ~ or ~ save money for a large down payment and adjust tip compliances and tax write offs and be patient to be able to qualify for a conforming loan on paper.

Until then, I strongly believe the winners will smile and the losers will be hurting.

This too, shall pass, let's hope quickly.

Yup, credit is tightening. Yup, there is too much inventory. Yup, if your house is overpriced, it will more than likely NOT sell. Yup, there are a lot of foreclosures & short sales.

There is a lot of waaaaaaaaaa waaaaaaaa waaaaaaaaa moaning and belly aching going on.

I don't want to answer my phone if it is a seller, agent and sometimes even friends. I am a prisoner in my home/office because I like to be positive and upbeat.

Here are how some of the conversations start:

• Don't you want to make money?
• Sell my house!
• I can't get an escrow to save my life!
• Whoa is me!
• When are you going back to work?

There has been a whole lot of change in the market in the last thirty days, heck even the last week. $40 billion in adjustable loans are set to adjust in the month of August. The next four months is going to be hell. Period, end of story.

Agents: I don't want to work 12-14 hour days myself and I don't know what the easy money of 2004 was like, I have no reference in my mind. Why is it that most agents think that the only thing they can do with their license is sell residential real estate? Commercial and property management is HOT right now. Prospect to renters, show rental property and get that referral fee!

Sellers: Unless your property is listed under the FHA limit (304K currently), fuggetaboutit! Open up other doors. Put your house up for lease or offer a lease option to purchase. Yes, Vegas area renters are tough on property but there has to be a way to minimize the pain and negative cash flow and put a band aid on the situation for a couple of years. Don't lease option for more than one year. Investors are coming out of the woodwork and trying to do two year leases, they are hedging on a 2009 boom at your risk.

Friends: I am resourceful, I don't need to get a job. My license takes me to great places and even though I am working long hours for very little money, I find this job rewarding in every way. Real Estate is in my blood. Everything will be OK.

To the people who feel sorry for sellers selling short and people being foreclosed upon ~ dry your tears! It really isn't that bad. Who is caught in the cross fire? I would say the majority (read majority) are people who took money out, like lots of money. Like we are talking over 6 figures ~ you know, 100K and above out of equity in their homes and have nothing to show for it. Where is that money? Why should the bank sell short and at a loss? My favorite short sale story is about a couple getting divorced, they want to short sell the home they bought last year, and the wife wants to buy it for $300K less. FRAUD!

Oh, and don't get me started on foreclosures. Working with renters, I can tell you I get at least one story a week about a renter who has to scramble because the owner (aka INVESTOR) is getting foreclosed on. People who were hedging on a "quick flip" and didn't anticipate a long hold.

Like I said, there is a minority of "normal" people out there selling short and getting foreclosed on but I don't hear too many of those stories. Those are the people my heart aches for.

I long for a normal market, although getting into it in 2005, I guess I don't know the definition of "normal".

It's my party and I will cry if I want to.

Wilbur & Theresa Faiss Middle School is still set to open on the first day of classes for Clark County School District: August 27, 2007. See CCSD schedule.

The school is located on the southwest corner of Maule and Fort Apache.

This picture was taken on August 7, 2007 and don't ask me why they are watering the dirt! Expected completion was August 3, 2007 but I suppose they are delayed with landscaping due to a rainy week the week prior to expected completion.

Click here for zoning information.

Click here for jobs available/hiring information.

Click here for the transportation request form.

Click here for enrollment information.

This Rhodes Ranch Area market report was generated on August 6, 2007:

• Active Listings: 717
• Under Contract: 79
• Sold 7/1-8/1/2007: 68

Includes: Apache Hills, Apache Springs (The Falls), Astoria Homes at Rhodes Ranch
(Independence), Canyon Trail, Huntington, Liberty @ Warm Springs, Maplewood, Rhodes
Ranch, Richmond@ Rhodes Ranch, Sierra Madre, Venezia, Vistana.

Active Rental PDF Report

For More information on the Rhodes Ranch Area or the most current market reports & market activity graphs: www.LivingAtRhodesRanch.com

For Subdivision Virtual Tours/Floor Plans and Information:

Canyon Trail

Sierra Madre

Apache Springs "The Falls"

Vistana

Esplanade

Independence

Rhodes Ranch

Yesterday as the Las Vegas Valley baked at 107 degrees we decided to take a drive up the mountain for a BBQ lunch. We settled for a picnic spot in between the Mt Charleston lodge and Lee Canyon in the Toiyabe National Forest. The weather is just about always 20-30 degrees cooler than the valley. The elevation was about 9000 feet with a little riparian fall running just feet from the picnic spot amid the large pine trees. I am allergic to them so ACHOO all day!

Area real estate boasts a variety of homes from quaint cottages to gorgeous luxury homes nestled snug on the mountain side and surrounded by pine (achoo again!)

This is a little known hideaway for Las Vegas area residents and sometimes tourists.

Summer activities in the area include: campgrounds, picnic areas, extensive hiking trails, biking, etc.

Winter activities include snow sports! YES, SNOW SPORTS! Snowboarding, skiing and sledding.

Surprisingly: This is a relatively short drive from the LV metropolitan area, anywhere from 15 minutes to an hour and a half depending on where your starting point in the valley is.

In summer it is a nice reprieve from the heat, in the winter it is a white wonderland!

Details:

Sunday, August 05, 2007 - 1:00 P.M.
JW Marriott Las Vegas Resort, Spa & Golf
221 N. Rampart Blvd.
Las Vegas, Nevada, 89145
702-869-7777

Click here to view the homes.

Click here to view the terms and conditions of sale.

Auction FAQ and Info Sheet.

This is being reported as the largest foreclosure auction in Las Vegas history. I may just go and check it out tomorrow, I will report back on what went on!

This post was inspired by Arina Hanciulescu (and I am not picking on you, just answering your questions quite frankly!) and Rey Gallegos from my Economic Conditions Report.

Arina posed questions in italics:

"Can you please explain how gaming and tourism industry help the Real Estate Market? I don't see the relation there. Conventions, tourism, gaming, adult entertainment bring to Las Vegas transit population only. Are you saying: "It's the economy stupid?" Well!... Those industry bring up the economy on the general level. But this is not essential factor in turning around the real estate market."

The tourism and convention attendence are absolutely essential to our real estate market. See my answer to what is booming right now under the next question. Leisure and Hospitality is the #1 employing industry in Nevada and accounts for 29% of the job market. Growing convention attendance and tourists bring in more money to our economy which in turns creates construction jobs (tied for the third largest employing industry), more businesses, more tax revenue (to keep the taxes down), etc. In return the people these industries employ, go out and spend their money on the smaller industries (buying homes, pools, landscaping, retail, etc.) Nevada remains attractive as a place to move to, live & work. In turn, our medical and education facilities keep growing in numbers and we have new jobs outside of the #1 Industry: Leisure & Hospitality.

"Las Vegas population is not 100% affected by those industry... There are in majority regular folks with regular jobs and regular business. As the Real Estate is in a spiral down mood all those regular folks (having nothing to do with the gaming/tourism...etc) are still hurting badly in the process."

Real Estate is NOT in a downward spiral. There is TREMENDOUS pressure on the rental market and has been since November of last year. The rental market is very much a part of the Las Vegas real estate market just as resales and new construction. We have seen a phenomenal upward tick in median & average rental rates in the last year. The rental market is experiencing a silent boom and the disparity between renting and a mortgage payment is dwindling in front of our eyes! Talk to land, commercial, business and property management brokers also for the state of real estate.

"If your assessment would be true than why Nevada/Las Vegas is listed on National statistics as top foreclosure rates. RealtyTrac: Nevada posted the nation's highest foreclosure rate, with one foreclosure filing for every 40 households during the first half of 2007. The state reported a total of 25,208 foreclosure filings on 14,687 properties, more than double the number of foreclosure filings reported in the previous six-month period and nearly triple the number reported in the first half of 2006."

Rey did an excellent job rebutting this in that post but I will add. The emergence of no down loans with almost no income qualifying guidelines helped this along the way. This is merely a hiccup to our growth in real estate. Not only is this affecting "normal" people but it is affecting investors who bought and thought they had a "quick flip" and weren't prepared to bleed from their wallet for another several years or prepared to rent out the property and experience negative cash flow. There are stories out there where people are renting properties and they are SCRAMBLING to find a new rental because the property they are renting is going back to the bank. Since I help find rentals, I hear a story like this at least once a week. This week it was twice.

"And Las Vegas has the gaming/tourism going for a growing economy? Is that the answer? Is that enough?"

Yes it is. To see the rental market moving like it is shows me that the State of Real Estate is SOUND. More people that come here to visit, more jobs are created, people are still moving here, people that move here still need housing. Even though they aren't buying homes, this doesn't necessarily mean that the market is stuck.

There are smaller markets within the larger resale market that is the entire Las Vegas Valley that are moving. We are selling at 2001/2002/2003 levels depending on the market you are looking at. We just have an abundance of inventory ~ which is the only thing that is making this market a stagnant market! We have introduced a whole bunch of new inventory to our markets since 2004: Condo Conversions, Patio Homes and High Rises just to name some examples.

The Las Vegas Real Estate Market is a VERY exciting place to be right now. We have a very unique economic base that must be watched carefully and never ignored.