Nevada Real Estate >> Las Vegas Real Estate Specialist: February 2008

Las Vegas, NV Area Real Estate has had pent up demand for real estate since I got my license in 2005.  People continue to move here in record numbers.  Real estate for them was either a) unaffordable or b) they were unable to obtain a loan because loan products tightened.

I cannot say this enough, real estate is MOVING here.  I read a depressing article online this morning saying prices still have to correct here is a direct quote:  Analysts said this overabundance of unsold homes would continue to depress sales and prices for some time to come.

Pendings are up another 200 some units from an article I wrote 5 days ago.  I am expecting pendings to double from January to March 2008.

New construction prices have corrected and bounced up already, REO's have an abundance of attention since three auctions in December and what we have is complete insanity here in the Las Vegas area.

I had three sign calls on a listing that was under contract midweek last week just this weekend.  This is in a neighborhood with half to three quarters of a million dollar homes, mind you.  I had two Realtor (R) calls on the same listing asking what are the odds of it falling out of contract.  I have had TWO Realtor (R) calls in the last week on a house I had listed and it went under lease option contract in August of 2007, expected to close in August of 2008, asking what are the odds of it closing because they have interested clients.  This is a three quarters of a million dollar house.  I had a friend list an REO property at around noon on Saturday.  She had 20+ calls from Realtors(R) and by 3 PM a Realtor (R) had stolen the key out of the lockbox so her clients can be the lucky ones to get this home.  We are seeing multiple offers on bank owned properties and I am dealing with buyers playing that game right as we speak.

There are a couple of things I want to point out:

DO NOT LISTEN TO THE MEDIA.  I am expecting REO prices to bounce up slightly.  With pendings rising so quickly, in the next month we will see the beginning of the closings and some absorption.  While their logic is correct, they are using January's numbers without foresight.  When you look at February's pending numbers, you can see the game is changing.

~AND~

DO NOT EXPECT A SAME DAY APPOINTMENT when you are calling me blindly.  We are running ourselves ragged and it isn't unusual for us to be booked solid a week out.  Please make sure you share your wants and needs with us AS SOON as you start your online search so we can prepare to show you homes properly and you will have everything you need when you are ready to make an offer.  All my clients are special to me, just because the media is saying we are slow, does not mean that it is true!

Economic Conditions for the Las Vegas Valley December 2007

Housing Conditions:

• Foreclosure/Short Sale Listings (2/23/3008): Total Listings 23269; Foreclosures Commenced: 1820, 7.8% of all listings; Short Sales: 4731, 20.3% of all listings; Bank Owned Listings: 2190, 9.4% of all listings.
• New Home Sales (December 2007, units sold): 1235 Year Change -48.2% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
• New Home Sales (December 2007, median price): $311,924 Year Change -5.5% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
• Existing Home Sales (December 2007, units sold): 1339 Year Change -50%
• Existing Home Sales (December 2007, median price): $250,000 Year Change: -12.3%
• New Home Permits (December 2007): 200 Year Change -89.5%
• Rental Rate (MLS Monthly Average December 2007): $1511/month 

My analysis: Resale listings are down and pendings are up sharply.  REO listings are in a seller's market.  The rental market has been consistently rising since November 2006.  Fire sale prices remain attractive to both long term investors and buyers tired of paying rent. 

New Residents/Employment Conditions:

• New Residents (January 2008): 5325, Year Change -3.3%
• Total Employment (December 2007): 944,800, Year Change +0.8%
• Unemployment Rate (December 2007) 5.6%, Year Change +33.3%

My analysis: The rising unemployment rate concerns me.  Availability of jobs will not keep new residents streaming in to town.  Could be tied to construction jobs lost and lack of home equity money for home improvement services

Tourism/Gaming Conditions:

• McCarran Airport Total Passengers (December 2007): 3,682,689 Year Change -3.2%
• Gaming Revenue (December 2007): $945,956,315, Year Change +4.1%
• Visitor Volume (December 2007): 3,400,776, Year Change +0.6%
• Convention Attendance (December 2007): 129,664, Year Change -19.9%
• Hotel/Motel Occupancy (December 2007): 83.2% Year Change +2.3%

My analysis: Declining convention attendence should be a concern but all other numbers are consistent and positive.

Sources: Salestraq, Home Builder's Research, Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, Nevada State Gaming Control Board, Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles, McCarran International Airport, Las Vegas Convention & Visitor's Authority, Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation

Las Vegas, NV Area Pendings for single family, condos and townhomes are up 536 units in 11 days and listings are down 332 units in the same time frame.

Buyer interest is ranging from first time buyer to experienced investor.  The frenzy is mainly due to swiftly rising rents and declining REO and attractive new construction prices.  The REO (Bank Owned, Foreclosure) market has shifted to a seller market and new construction is an option for many buyers facing frustration after submitting multiple offers in the REO market only to be outbid each property with multiple offers.  Renters are also facing frustration with the homes they are renting going into foreclosure and wanting to take control of their future.

With 23333 current listings in the Las Vegas area, there is still a lot of inventory, about half over priced.  This is good news and a signal that the market is turning slowly but surely.  Sure enough we are going to have another auction of bank owned listings.  This will draw even more buyers into our market.  I will give more details on this auction soon to follow.

The bank owned market is officially a seller's market.  We have seen all the signs in the last two months as the December auctions have jump started the interest in this market!

I am EXTREMELY happy to report that since those December auctions:  Listings have stayed stable, Pendings have tripled and Sales have doubled.  We currently have only 5.5 months of inventory in this market and banks are seeing multiple offers on properties that are priced well.

Absorption history:

• October 2007:  9.7 months
  
• November 2007:  9.5 months
  
• December 2007:  9 Months
  
• January 2007:  7.7 Months
  
• February 2007:  5.5 Months 

Current Bank Owned (REO/Foreclosure) Listing Statistics: 

• Listings (February 17, 2008):  2220
• Under Contract (February 17, 2008):  975
• Sold 1/11-2/11/2008:  403
• Month's Inventory 5.5 

This Rhodes Ranch Area resale market report was generated on February 17, 2008 (graph on bottom):

• Active Listings: 452
• Under Contract:  99
  
• Sold 1/11-2/11/2008:  42
• Months Inventory: 14.1
• Low:  $115,000; High:  $3,490,000; Median:  260,000(listing prices only)

Rental Market Report generated on February 17, 2008 (graph on top):

• Active Listings: 81
• Under Contract:  20
• Leased 1/11-2/11/2008:  48
• Months Inventory:  1.7
  

Median List Price for an area rental:  $1350/month, Low:  $750, High:  $10000

Information from GLVAR is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Last Market Report Generated January 27, 2008

Click here to view past market report graphs and active rental, resale and new construction listings in the Rhodes Ranch Area 

 Includes: Apache Hills, Apache Springs (The Falls), Astoria Homes at Rhodes Ranch
(Independence), Canyon Trail, Huntington, Liberty @ Warm Springs, Maplewood, Rhodes
Ranch, Richmond@ Rhodes Ranch, Sierra Madre, Venezia, Vistana.

For More information on the Rhodes Ranch Area or the most current market reports & market activity graphs:  www.LivingAtRhodesRanch.com

Las Vegas NV Residential Real Estate still has a long way to go BUT with listings down since December and pendings up, it shows the market is M-O-V-I-N-G!!

Using statistics from my December Slice-of-Pie reports here is the good news:

All SFR, Townhome, Condo Listings:

• Listings (12/9/2007):  25691
• Under Contract (12/9/2007):  2304
• Sold November:  1137
• Month's Inventory:  22.5

All SFR, Townhome, Condo Listings:

• Listings (2/10/2008):  23665
• Under Contract (2/10/2008):  3107
• Sold January 2008:  1164
• Month's Inventory:  20.3

This is pretty good news as I watched the pendings stay stable throughout the first several weeks of January.  They just started to spike towards the end of January/ beginning of February.  The closings will not be reflected until end of February/March.  The listings going downward is also good news because traditionally you see listings go down in December and up in January rather than the opposite.

I will be posting my foreclosure report a little later today.  The bank owned listing market has swung into a seller's market.

Of those 3107 pendings, 857 are bank owned listings and 492 are short sales.  The short sales are not seeing a spike in closings and I really WISH agents would not put them into pending or contingent status until they have full bank approval so we can gauge the real numbers.

We still need to see a decent rise in closings and see inventory cut in half before we have a truly balanced market but I do see the signs :wink: