- Foreclosure/Short Sale Listings (3/15/2011): Total Listings 14443; Short Sales: 7421, 51% of all listings; Bank Owned Listings: 2587, 18% of all listings. Short sale and REO listings consume 69% of total listings
- New Home Sales (February 2011, units sold): 237 Year Change -26.4% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
- New Home Sales (February 2011, median price): $193,000 Year Change -7.5% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
- Existing Home Sales (February 2011, units sold): 3250 Year Change +8.6%
- Existing Home Sales (February 2011, median price): $115,000 Year Change: -7.3%
- New Home Permits (February 2011): 236 Year Change -50.2%
- Rental Rate (MLS Monthly Average Feb 2010): $1501/month
My analysis: Distressed listings (foreclosures and short sales) are 69% of total listings. Units of homes sold impressive considering tax credit was alive this time last year. Credit markets must be watched as underwriting guidelines continue to tighten. Condos are barely financeable. Inventory stopped it's slow increase in December and now spring time buyers are gobbling up inventory. The rental market is softening due to all the investor/first time buyer combination of activity. This adds more supply and creates less demand.
New Residents/Employment Conditions:
- New Residents (February 2011): 4437, Year Change +17.1%
- Total Employment (February 2011): 793,500 Year Change -0.6%
- Unemployment Rate (February 2011) 13.7%, Year Change -1.5%
My analysis: The tourism, gaming and convention numbers need to improve before these numbers improve. New Resident Count will continue to plummet if no new jobs are created. Economists are hoping that City Center brings tens of thousands of new jobs. The Las Vegas Valley has lost -133,400 jobs since April 2008. I am not optimistic that City Center can pull us out of this slump. (see Tourism/Gaming conditions below!) City Center is expected to draw in anywhere from 10,000-15,000 new jobs. Unfortunately around 8500 construction workers from the project will be unemployed so that really boils down to only 2500-7500 new jobs. Unemployment rate is still painful however the total employed numbers have remained stable for a year.
- McCarran Airport Total Passengers (January 2011): 3,165,368 Year Change +5.0%
- Gaming Revenue (January 2011): $761,353,636, Year Change -0.4%
- Visitor Volume (January 2011): 3,385,225, Year Change +8.0%
- Convention Attendance (January 2011): 615,854, Year Change +36.9%
- Hotel/Motel Occupancy (January 2011): 79.0% Year Change +7.9%
My analysis: This sector (tourism) needs to see some serious price corrections before we see a comeback. Corporate credit is not coming back any time soon. It will be hard to get convention attendance back up without corporate credit. Glad to see regular tourists are making their way here with the imbalance of the other numbers to replace the convention attendee numbers. Visitor Volume, Gaming Revenue & Convention Attendance are encouraging and hopefully sustainable.
Sources: Salestraq, Home Builder's Research, Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, Nevada State Gaming Control Board, Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles, McCarran International Airport, Las Vegas Convention & Visitor's Authority, Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. My analysis is my humble opinion