While I am seeing no end in sight with so many upside down properties, I don't see "shadow" inventory being dumped on the market.
While we sit in the middle of "moratorium" and "slow" season, here is what *I SEE* is going on:
Inventory climbed slightly in November and now dropped slightly (I pull numbers officially on the 15th.) Pendings have dropped tremendously since November BUT so far December's closings are telling me that there will be more closings (Christmas presents) in December than November!
Where is that pesky Shadow Inventory or the "Big Dump" banks will be taking that people (Realtors, Servicing Companies, Financial Planners, Wallstreet Gurus, etc) have been promising since last spring??
Should we have a recap? Yes I say we shall!
Rentals: Fannie and Freddie have Rentback programs for Tenants and Homeowners that qualify
Bankruptcy: Yup, a property can get tied up while a defaulted owner is in BK
Loan Modifications: I do sincerely believe that many who have defaulted are getting loan modd-ed
Short Sales: It's not too tough to push back a sale date when an aggressive lawyer or short sale agent is working on your file and you have a good offer.
Trustee's Sales: Summer 2008 I estimated 2-4% of Trustee's Sales were NOT going back to the bank but rather going to corporate flipping entities or private parties. Today I say that number is between 40-60%.
Fire Sale Prices Picqued Buyer interest is at an all time high: yes, I said it! REO inventory is being GOBBLED up by extremely high buyer interest!
Certain Servicers are Just NOT Foreclosing: For some reason (yea, someone else can name names) there is a major servicing company that is just not issuing sale dates on empty properties and they aren't moving on short sales either. Don't know the reasoning behind that one but :shrug:
Our inventory is being controlled by the forces above, and a little by the banks and the government. We still need about 10000 units (yes, 10,000, ten thousand) units to turn this from a SELLER'S MARKET to a STABLE MARKET.
Nope, it won't stop any time soon. They only way we can get more inventory and declining prices is by severe underwriting guideline changes (tighter) or large hikes in interest rates. (The aforementioned scenarios are not out of the realm of possibilities especially with DU 8.0 on the horizon.) It simply means less buyers will be swimming in the inventory pool because they no longer qualify!
I am sick of the phrase "It is What it Is" (I will vomit next time I hear it) so help me think of a new phrase to describe what selling in hell is like ;)