AS OF MARCH 13, 2010, 8:05 AM:
In the twilight of the time where I traditionally pull statistics (which is the 15th of every month), I am very excited to report (for sellers) that we have ONLY 9981 Active Units available. Most of which are short sales! We have flirted with going under the 10K mark for months and months and months now and finally made it!
CAN SPRING BRING US 16000 CONTINGENT/PENDING CONTRACTED UNITS?
Contingent and Pending Contract numbers are up to 14853. We have gone over 15K pendings before (late summer/early fall 2009) so this is no where as exciting yet! I do believe we will head to the 16K number soon as the spring is JUST heating up.
CLOSES FOR MARCH:
We are currently at 1201 closes for the month of March 2010. At that pace the closing numbers will sit between 3000-4000 units. I predict 3453 exactly (just kidding, but that would be funny to hit that number!)
WE HAVE COME A LONG WAY BABY!
Just a year ago we were sitting at a buyer/stable market. The market swung into a seller's market in mid-spring 2009.
GAME AIN'T OVER - IT'S ONLY HALFTIME:
Do not leave the game yet. Foreclosure filings are NOT down and the game isn't over quite yet. Buyer interest is just EXTREMELY high when you combine incentives: low and undervalued prices, low interest rates, tax credits for buyers who qualify. Yes, the all cash purchasers are still in our market and that consumes about 40% of our closed resale units!
We aren't seeing appreciation because inventory is still flooding the market (even though buyers are gobbling it up.)
IF THE SCALES TIP EITHER WAY:
The Las Vegas market is so delicate that if inventory stops coming on or if buyer interest dries up quicker than a rain puddle in the desert we could see a market change!
IF INVENTORY STOPS COMING ONLINE:
We will see appreciation. I personally don't think this will happen. Inventory has been making it's way on the market quickly (remember, I do not believe in the shadow inventory fairy!) The inventory does come online as quick as it can. I witness this with the eons of BPOs I perform on pre-list REO inventory. A nicer chunk is also getting absorbed through private purchases at trustee sales than it has in the past!
IF BUYER INTEREST DRIES UP:
We will see more inventory and some more possible depreciation! This would be a more likely scenario than inventory not coming online. Interest rates rising, tax credits going away, tighter underwriting guidelines, etc will all have a profound affect on our buyer pool.
MY LAS VEGAS AREA STATS:
Monthly I pull statistics for the Las Vegas area so you, the consumer, may decide when it is a good time to buy or sell your home. I create my own easy to read stats and give a little analysis of the market (as I see it!) When I produce a "Las Vegas Area" market report, it is ONLY for the Las Vegas Valley (Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, Henderson and outlying county areas from mountain to mountain to mountain to mountain.) I do not go over the hump and pull statistics for Pahrump, Boulder City, Laughlin, Mesquite (google Virginia Hepp from Mesquite if you need Mesquite Stats!!) Our MLS also has OUT OF STATE listings in it too.
SO if you see market reports for ALL of Las Vegas, make sure you ask the question if those OUT OF STATE AND NON-VALLEY Communities and Cities are included in the stats - or if they filtered that data out!
I AM EXTREMELY ACTIVE IN THE DISTRESSED PROPERTY SALES ARENA:
I list short sales (only for properly motivated sellers, I do not take any short sale that comes my way,) I have listed REO in the past (so I understand the backend process,) I work with buyers all day long every day buying short sales, REO and even investor purchased trustee sale flips. Standard sales are a little rare here, investor purchased trustee sale flips are lumped in with our standard sales.
I have been performing BPOs (broker price opinions) since 2007 and am a member of NABPOP. Broker price opinions are when we give second opinion list pricing to banks on their assets. I believe by doing these, my insight on giving price opinions to buyers may be a little more in depth because I understand where different pricing ends up with REO (bank owned,) Short Sales, Standard Sales and Investor Trustee Flips.
You can view the rest of my designations/certifications and memberships on my profile page. I have completed my SFR (Short Sale Foreclosure Resource) Training and sent in my application. Just waiting for approval on that certification!