Right now our listing to pending ratio is narrowing. We are swiftly switching from a stable (neutral) market to a seller's market in the next month.
Yes, there may be some hidden "shadow" inventory with the moratoriums winding down. Word on the street is that short sales are currently being accepted in a quicker manner. Unfortunately this cannot be verified until we see some closes as there are inconsistencies about reporting the status of a short sale in the MLS.
Loan modification specialists are also reporting that loan modifications are happening. There is absolutely no solid way to track that number.
Are the foreclosures coming to a halt or are we going to see an avalanche of new inventory hit the market soon? No one can say.
What we have are pendings rising at a record clip and inventory dropping rapidly with not much new stuff coming online. Here is what the numbers looked like last week when I pulled them for my monthly report:
- Listings (4/14/2009): 17846
- Under Contract (4/14/2009): 10068
- Sold March 2009: 3525
- Month's Inventory: 5.1
Here they are today:
- Listings (4/23/2009): 16903
- Under Contract (4/23/2009): 10723
- Sold March 2009: 3523
- Month's Inventory: 4.8
Is pricing going to go up? I don't think we will see LIST prices going up but SALE prices will be driven up from the intensity of multiple offer situations.
Multiple offers have been common and the norm for over a year now on properly priced properties. Now it is even more intense. Banks base pricing on BPOs, CMAs or Appraisals (all are differently defined, they are not one in the same.) Some banks will price to undercut the competition they see. By doing plenty of BPOs myself, I could properly counsel my buyers that if a property had multiple offers that the net was going to go for between 3-5% above list price.
Well we have had several buyers lose properties with bids between 15-20% above list in the last couple of weeks. Basically until we see some closings come up under the recent conditions, there is no solid way for me to counsel on where to properly put that bid in to win and not overpay! Some good strategies for getting a home (if you have a sense of urgency:)
- Continue to make appointments to see homes
- Make multiple offers on multiple properties
- Prey on the slightly overpriced listings that no one else is looking at
- Give short sales a whirl (even though these have a 20 foreclosures to one close ratio)
- It's always best to interview interview and interview Realtors to find the ones that are actively working this intense market!
Writing multiple offers and continuing to pound the pavement by making more appointments to getting an offer accepted is the key to getting a home right now. It's exhausting & you can't fall in love with one home. Be prepared mentally to do this and don't get caught in a frenzy that will result in buyer's remorse!
I do have access to a great tool for Home Buyers to track listings they are interested in called "Home Buyer's Scouting Report." If you are interested please email us or call 702-966-2494 and say "I WANT THE HBSR" and we will get you signed up per your home search criteria. Even if you are in just the beginning stages of looking, this is the perfect way to watch new listings come online and go offline! You can even track price changes. You can also email us at 411@reneeburrows.com to request the site!
Good luck with your home search and it's only "wait and see" where this thing is headed! All of us active agents are bruised, battered and torn to shreds with all the market changes in the last two years. At least I will be able to say I survived it in the end!
Hi Renee...Thank you for sharing your news. It sounds as though things are looking much better for your market.
Upbeat reporting is great to hear no matter what part of the country it is coming from.
Kate
Kate: I just wish the banks would go a little higher with their pricing so my buyers can prey on the listings that aren't getting any attention ;)
Renee: You have no idea how glad I am to read your report! I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you and hope your market continues to change for best!
Renee, thanks for posting the numbers. It's good to hear that your market is turning around.
Debe: We live it every day! We are definitely seeing some inventory shortage issues!
Maria: You are welcome. I don't know if it is turning around but we shall see ;)
Renee - sounds like some positive changes and lots of activity in your market.Perhaps the changes will spur more buyers to action. Hope the chanegs are long-term.
Jeff
Renee - it's great to see all those Contract Pendings! Hopefully they're not preconstruction condos which won't close.
Hi Renee, was link over to this pos from other one and ebnjoyed this very mch. It does not sound like an aberration and I particularly like this statement" I don't think we will see LIST prices going up but SALE prices will be driven up from the intensity of multiple offer situations".
The last two listings I sold were with multiple over and one was even over list. I like where all this is going, don't you. There was a lot of pent up momentum and hope the tax credit will be extended for at least another 6 to 12 months. Hope springs eternal.
Jeff: I hope they are too!
Sharon: YIKES! Hopefully not. We are going to see the short sale pendings rise too!
William: HOPE Springs Eternal, love it! Unfortunately new HVCC code killed me 2/3 times yesterday. Two low, one right where it needs to be. I am hoping that is NOT going to kill our market!