Economic Conditions for the Las Vegas Valley April 2008
Housing Conditions:
- Foreclosure/Short Sale Listings (4/15/2009): Total Listings 17846; Short Sales: 6698, 37.5% of all listings; Bank Owned Listings: 5543, 32.9% of all listings. Short sale and REO listings consume 68.6% of total listings
- New Home Sales (March 2009, units sold): 466 Year Change -46.4% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
- New Home Sales (March 2009, median price): $228,030 Year Change -12.3% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
- Existing Home Sales (March 2009, units sold): 3220 Year Change +69.6%
- Existing Home Sales (March 2009, median price): $142,000 Year Change: -38.3%
- New Home Permits (March 2009): 233 Year Change -41%
- Rental Rate (MLS Monthly Average February 2009): $1365/month
My analysis: Distressed listings (foreclosures and short sales) are 68.6% of total listings. Credit markets must be watched, it's hard to remain optimistic with all the bad news on Wall Street. Resale sold units and pendings remain impressive. Builders cannot compete with bank owned listing prices, thus sales remain lackluster.
New Residents/Employment Conditions:
- New Residents (March 2009): 4770, Year Change -11.3%
- Total Employment (March 2009): 875,700 Year Change -5.2%
- Unemployment
Rate (March 2009) 10.4%, Year Change +100%
My analysis: The tourism, gaming and convention numbers need to improve before these numbers improve. New Resident Count will go down if no new jobs are created. Unemployment rate is painful.
Tourism/Gaming Conditions:
- McCarran Airport Total Passengers (March 2009): 3,633,269 Year Change -11.8%
- Gaming Revenue (March 2009): $786,457,648, Year Change -9.8%
- Visitor Volume (March 2009): 3,549,864, Year Change -7.9%
- Convention Attendance (March 2009): 446,588, Year Change -30%
- Hotel/Motel Occupancy (March 1009): 85.9% Year Change -6.8%
My analysis: Rising gas costs and flight cuts during the summer started hurting the tourism business. This sector needs to see some serious price corrections before we see a comeback. Corporate credit is not coming back any time soon. Glad to see regular tourists are making their way here with the imbalance of the other numbers to replace the convention attendee numbers
Sources: Salestraq, Home Builder's Research, Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, Nevada State Gaming Control Board, Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles, McCarran International Airport, Las Vegas Convention & Visitor's Authority, Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. My analysis is my humble opinion.
Oh my ! 68% of all listings are distress sales ! Wow !
Boy I hope that number starts to decline as this year progresses...
Hey Renee ~ Reno is right there with Vegas, well almost, we are at 48% of all listings are distressed sales! There is light at the end of the tunnel, right?
BTW ~ You are definitely a stats lady! Very impressive. I am still working on my market reports, I have several different plans I am working on but am trying to make them somewhat....understandable!
What a challenging market. It must be very difficult for many people. This is an very nicely done report.
Hi Sharon. I didn't realize short sales and REOs were that high a percentage of the total inventory. Amazing.
Renee:
Do you sense further sales improvement in April and May so far?
We have seen a strong pickup over the past month or so in Bergen County New Jerey.
I think your opinions are on.
I am worried about rates backing up due to government excess spending.
Richard
Hi Renee, Your numbers seem to be a parallel image of what has been seen so much here in Southern California. I think our unemployment has been at the same level as well.
Excellent analysis, Renee. I like the broad brush look and considering issues outside of real estate. Some towns here, e.g.a, San Marcos, have similar numbers for distrss sales - April sales there were 86% distress (includes REOs).
Jeff
Renee, you sure did a lot of research for this blog. I hope that LV home buyers and sellers can truly appreciate your experience and knowledge.
Renee, though many of the stats show your area continues to struggle, the statement: "Existing Home Sales (March 2009, units sold): 3220 Year Change +69.6%"s at least a bright spot. Hang in there!
Sheldon: I sure hope so too!
Terrie: LOL! Let me know when you get it all up and going ;)
Joan: Thanks for stopping by as always! It is challenging for all of us from the buyer to the asset manager to the lender to close!
Gary: It is pretty disheartening!
Richard: I have the same worries. Yes sales are going to be phenomenal. I thought we were leveling in pendings and we are almost touching 12000. Sick!
William: The unemployment concerns me - alot!
Jeff: That number is painful. We have pockets where it is not so bad and then there are pockets that are worse, Yeowch!
Regina: Why thank you!
Russell: Doing my best. The lack of convention business has slid for a year due to the lack of corporate credit. It seems we have attracted enough "regular" visitors to keep the other numbers (lodging, gaming) from going into the toilet completely!