Economic Conditions for the Las Vegas Valley May 2008
Housing Conditions:
- Foreclosure/Short Sale Listings (5/15/2009): Total Listings 14938; Short Sales: 6156, 41.2% of all listings; Bank Owned Listings: 3761, 25.2% of all listings. Short sale and REO listings consume 66% of total listings
- New Home Sales (April 2009, units sold): 325 Year Change -56.6% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
- New Home Sales (April 2009, median price): $215,650 Year Change -15.6% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
- Existing Home Sales (April 2009, units sold): 3652 Year Change +62.5%
- Existing Home Sales (April 2009, median price): $130,000 Year Change: -43.5%
- New Home Permits (April 2009): 346 Year Change -51.3%
- Rental Rate (MLS Monthly Average April 2009): $1348/month
My analysis: Distressed listings (foreclosures and short sales) are 66% of total listings. THIS IS DOWN FOR THE FIRST TIME THAT I HAVE BEEN KEEPING TRACK OF THESE STATS - SEVERAL YEARS! Credit markets must be watched, interest rates are rising quickly too. Resale sold units and pendings remain impressive. Builders cannot compete with bank owned listing prices, thus sales remain lackluster.
New Residents/Employment Conditions:
- New Residents (April 2009): 4770, Year Change -23.9%
- Total Employment (April 2009): 871,400 Year Change -5.9%
- Unemployment
Rate (April 2009) 10.4%, Year Change +108%
My analysis: The tourism, gaming and convention numbers need to improve before these numbers improve. New Resident Count will go down if no new jobs are created. Unemployment rate is painful.
Tourism/Gaming Conditions:
- McCarran Airport Total Passengers (April 2009): 3,565,334 Year Change -5.9%
- Gaming Revenue (April 2009): $734,711,904, Year Change -13.6%
- Visitor Volume (April 2009): 3,497,132, Year Change -4.7%
- Convention Attendance (April 2009): 414,764, Year Change -23%
- Hotel/Motel Occupancy (April 2009): 88% Year Change -2.2%
My analysis: This sector (tourism) needs to see some serious price corrections before we see a comeback. Corporate credit is not coming back any time soon. It will be hard to get convention attendance back up without corporate credit. Glad to see regular tourists are making their way here with the imbalance of the other numbers to replace the convention attendee numbers. Gaming and convention business is big business and those numbers MUST increase.
Sources: Salestraq, Home Builder's Research, Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, Nevada State Gaming Control Board, Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles, McCarran International Airport, Las Vegas Convention & Visitor's Authority, Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. My analysis is my humble opinion.
That is just crazy, 66%??!! No wonder I have a Vegas guy coming to visit in a couple of weeks to move out here!
Hi Renee,
Your numbers jive with all that I have been hearing. Glad you doing well but the best bet is for saving some of it. This think isn't over.
The good news is the long term finances for LV will come back. But with Investors still buying so much of the REO's, I wonder who they think they will rent them to if unemplyment continues to rise? It might be that the powers that be may have to rethink the city plan and where it wants to draw the line. Maybe they should stop building housing houses for a while.
One of the facinating things about LV is that when the big old buildings on the strip have seen their day, they blow them up and build something specatular. If only they would do that with houses. About every 25 / 30 years, bulldoze them and start over. Instead, they usually just remodel the ugly ones and it usually doesn't help that much,lol.
This is an very interesting report and it confirms what I have been reading in the national news. This economic downturn is not over.. and unemployment is going to be a problem for some time.
Renee:
Great survey! As a contrarian, I will say rates are going to come back off a bit here. At least I hope it will. The market as all indication of rising long term rates. So I will disagree for a while.
Richard
Renee- I do agree with William some what but living in the heart of Las Vegas and working on the second biggest project in the (World) MGM Grand City Center, many employees will be hired at MGM.
And it is not in my best interest to say any bad comments about a city that I live in and sell Real Estate!
Great post Renee with some great information, I am so jealous and I wish I had the time to round up some figures like this!
Your friend Vegas Bob
And by the way young lady your post has been featured at in the group ............. LAS VEGAS - NEVADA
Excellent source of information you are are Renee! Such good news to hear that the foreclosure numbers are heading down. We too have seen a bit of REO drop here in Raleigh. As rates start their upward climb hopefully those fence sitters will start to move!
Donna: Yes and it is not crazy but a living hell here!
William: We would have nothing "old" here if we did that! That was a fun comment tho ;)
Joan: Yes it will. Corporate credit will not make it's way back so we must reinvent ourselves. Easy money is gone.
Richard: The rates are raising at a steady pace and you know me: I take the punches as they come!
Robert: I am like an alcoholic and on this with a day by day basis. I will believe the jobs that come when they come and wonder at this point what the absorption will be. Wynn and Aliante were supposed to turn this train around. Hard Rock just hired 1000 employees. Even the 10000 predicted jobs from city center won't help all that much (absorption again) if we continue this downward slide. If we can't fill our hotel rooms now, how will we fill them when city center opens? If condos are not financable now, how will they be financable when city center opens? I also must respectfully disagree that I must get the numbers out for investors and regular buyers. This is their future. It is my goal that my buyers are educated and not caught up in a whirlwind frenzy. I live here and sell real estate here too :-0 I do appreciate the feature, thank you!
Lee & Pamela: It may be a one month fluke but I hope not. THat number was flirting dangerously close to 70%
Sorry Renee and I had a brain fart last night and messed up with the feature, taken care of my friend and don't forget lunch in July!
Vegas Bob
Robert: I may be having surgery in July now. At least I will catch a little break :)
A living hell would be the way I would describe it. My numbers in my area look liker a bed of roses compared to yours. We do have a position fr you. SC?