Nevada Real Estate >> Las Vegas Real Estate Specialist: Economic Conditions for the Las Vegas Valley December 2009

Economic Conditions for the Las Vegas Valley December 2009

Economic Conditions for the Las Vegas Valley November 2009

 Housing Conditions:

Las Vegas Area Homes For Sale - Pending - Sold

Las Vegas Area Homes For Sale - Pending - Sold

  • Foreclosure/Short Sale Listings (12/15/2009): Total Listings 10332; Short Sales: 4474, 43% of all listings; Bank Owned Listings: 2253, 22% of all listings. Short sale and REO listings consume 65% of total listings
  • New Home Sales (November 2009, units sold): 581 Year Change -4.3% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
  • New Home Sales (November 2009, median price): $200,000 Year Change -19.5% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
  • Existing Home Sales (November 2009, units sold): 3774 Year Change +46.8%
  • Existing Home Sales (November 2009, median price): $126,000 Year Change: -27.5%
  • New Home Permits (November 2009): 285 Year Change -58.3%
  • Rental Rate (MLS Monthly Average August 2009): $1265/month 

My analysis:  Distressed listings (foreclosures and short sales) are 65% of total listings.  Credit markets must be watched as underwriting guidelines continue to tighten.  Condos are barely financeable.  Resale sold units and pendings remain impressive.  Builders cannot compete with bank owned listing prices, thus sales remain lackluster. The rental market is softening due to all the investor/first time buyer combination of activity.  This adds more supply and creates less demand.

New Residents/Employment Conditions:

Las Vegas NV New Resident Count

Las Vegas NV Total Employment

  • New Residents (November 2009): 4031, Year Change -9.4%
  • Total Employment (November 2009): 843,100 Year Change -6.7%
  • Unemployment Rate (November  2009) 12.0%, Year Change +53.8%

My analysis: The tourism, gaming and convention numbers need to improve before these numbers improve.  New Resident Count will continue to plummet if no new jobs are created.  Economists are hoping that City Center brings tens of thousands of new jobs.  The Las Vegas Valley has lost -83800 jobs since April 2008.  I am not optimistic that City Center can pull us out of this slump.  (see Tourism/Gaming conditions below!)  City Center is expected to draw in anywhere from 10,000-15,000 new jobs.  Unfortunately around 8500 construction workers from the project will be unemployed so that really boils down to only 2500-7500 new jobs.  Unemployment rate is painful.

Tourism/Gaming Conditions:

Las Vegas NV Convention Attendance

  • McCarran Airport Total Passengers (November 2009): 3,234,705 Year Change +0.1%
  • Gaming Revenue (October 2009): $673,403,952, Year Change -11.1%
  • Visitor Volume (October 2009): 3,449,232, Year Change +1.6%
  • Convention Attendance (October 2009): 349,383, Year Change  -8.3% 
  • Hotel/Motel Occupancy (October 2009): 82.6% Year Change -1.4%

My analysis:   After rising in double digits for one month, Convention attendance is in the black again. This sector (tourism) needs to see some serious price corrections before we see a comeback.  Corporate credit is not coming back any time soon.  It will be hard to get convention attendance back up without corporate credit.  Glad to see regular tourists are making their way here with the imbalance of the other numbers to replace the convention attendee numbers.  Gaming and convention business is big business and those numbers MUST increase for jobs to increase and for our entire economy to stabilize.  Any convention attendance decrease of over 10% is extremely painful to this economy and all the overbuilt convention space.  It will be interesting to see what hotel/motel occupancy boils down to after city center opens with almost 6,000 new rooms online.  Anyone else seeing price corrections in store for the Las Vegas Strip?

Sources: Salestraq, Home Builder's Research, Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, Nevada State Gaming Control Board, Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles, McCarran International Airport, Las Vegas Convention & Visitor's Authority, Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation.  Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.  My analysis is my humble opinion


Thanks,  Renée Burrows 702-580-1783 Broker/Owner, REALTOR®
 

 

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Comment balloon 12 commentsRenée Donohue~Home Photography • January 07 2010 08:16AM

Comments

Renee - Nice graphs of the Las Vegas market as usual. I agree with your analysis that the job market will have to improve before anything else does. Unfortunately all of the plans of our current administration will not improve the job market. Lets hope for some smarter voters later this year.

Posted by Larry Brewer - Benchmark Realty llc (Benchmark Realty LLc) about 10 years ago

Renee, Great graphs like Larry said. I will be attending the ASHI convention there in a few weeks. Maybe we can hook up...

Helping you help others live their American dream...

Posted by TeamCHI - Complete Home Inspections, Inc., Home Inspectons - Nashville, TN area - 615.661.029 (Complete Home Inspections, Inc.) about 10 years ago

Renee

It looks like your market is kind of consistent for a while on your graph; is it stabilizing a little?

Posted by Tom Braatz Waukesha County Real Estate 262-377-1459, Waukesha County Realtor Real Estate agent. SOLD! (Coldwell Banker) about 10 years ago

Hi Renee...certainly home buyer have less choices now, hopefully the job sector will pick up be fore too long.

Great Real Estate Market Report

Posted by Fred Carver Personal Real Estate Corporation, Accredited Real Estate Consultant (RE/MAX Camosun Victoria BC Real Estate) about 10 years ago

I keep telling locals in my area the housing market will continue limping along until employment picks up.  Can't buy a home without a job or a rich relative.

Posted by John Walters, Licensed in Louisiana (Frank Rubi Real Estate) about 10 years ago

Hi Renee...my buddy Tom Braatz said you are a blogging rockstar and I could learn alot from you (as I have from him)!  I look forward to getting to know you and if you need another Waukesha County Realtor contact, I am your gal!!!  I adore animals and am a huge activist too!  Take care!

Posted by Kristin Johnston - REALTOR®, Giving Back With Each Home Sold! (RE/MAX Realty Center ) about 10 years ago
Hi Renee. I would like to see that total employment line bottom out and go the other way. Happy New Year!!
Posted by Gary Woltal, Assoc. Broker Realtor SFR Dallas Ft. Worth (Keller Williams Realty) about 10 years ago

Larry:  HA!  The incoming visitor count needs to improve first.  That's LV's fault for not creating large enough incentives to come here and spend your money here with simple price corrections.  Once we have that, all other numbers will rise!

Michael:  Give me a call a couple of days before you hop on the plane and let's see if we can squeeze in a lunch or something!!  Would love it!

Tom:  It better show stabilization in the next couple of months, portions of the holy grail (city center) just opened!

Fred:  THANKS!  We need those visitors spending money and the rest will rise naturally ;)

John:  LOL, aint that the truth!

Kristin:  Please let me know if you need anything and I will be there to help!  Sounds like we have a bunch in common!

Gary:  Don't we all ;)  Happy New Year to you too!

Posted by Renée Donohue~Home Photography, Western Michigan Real Estate Photographer (Savvy Home Pix) about 10 years ago

Renee - Such great graphics. Show them your satisfaction ratio. bet it's off the chart. Just a thought.

Posted by Claude Cross, Charlotte NC Homes For Sale (Homes By Cross, Inc. ) about 10 years ago

Renee,

Tons of short sales under contract but only so few close. REOs listings are closing pretty good.

Posted by Esko Kiuru about 10 years ago

Hey Girl!  All I can say is WOW!  You go WAY above and beyond...there is no one that does graphs like you.  (Sounds like a song, doesn't it?!)

Have a wonderful weekend...

Posted by Debe Maxwell, CRS, The right Charlotte REALTOR! (www.iCharlotteHomes.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310) about 10 years ago

Claude:  I wish, it is so hard for buyers and sellers in this environment.  I just try to mentally prepare them for most things that can go wrong and then they are happy in the end when they saw what was coming and were prepared to deal with it!

Esko:  Pretty decent close ratio!  They come, they get under contract, then they go and are loved by a new family!

Debe:  SORRY but that really made me laugh out loud (about the song!)  Thanks for stopping by!

Posted by Renée Donohue~Home Photography, Western Michigan Real Estate Photographer (Savvy Home Pix) about 10 years ago

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