I had a chit chat with a nice out of state all cash investor today. She has been led to believe that she can flip homes in this environment. Resale homes that is.
She has been looking for several months as I understand and she had been given some poor advise.
I wasn't willing to take her on!
WHY?
Right now Las Vegas area listings are increasing with a rapid pace due to the first time buyer tax credit. "Sellable" inventory has increased also. I was right in my January article - the investors have been left holding the bag as I watch their overpriced inventory gather dust.
This stuff would have been snatched up in a New York Minute back in April (tax credit buyers) but with calculated price reductions by bank asset managers now it just seems to stand out like a sore thumb.
Even the true flippers (the ones that purchase at the actual foreclosure/trustee sale) are stating that their margins are tight these days.
I would never, in our volatile Las Vegas real estate environment advise someone that doing this is a walk in the park without checking with the customer/client to make sure they have the stomach & means to hold the property in the event of another decline (which could happen!)
Maybe this is my odd combo of altruistic/narcissistic side of me that assumes I will get a sale and then consequently a listing. Who needs another person pissed off at you because you can't sell their house at the margin they expect? Not even the best marketing machine in the world could do it..........in this environment.
It is possible to do this, just not highly probable to see the results you want.
You can see my Las Vegas Market Report Graphs right here if you don't believe me.
So true! I don't want to be too negative, but there's more pain coming in housing. Of course, there'll be more opportunities too for the nimble:)
Good advice Renee, Sometimes you just have to trust your knowledge and your 'gut' feeling and do what is best!
Drew: I hate being negative too but with buyers not quick to pull the trigger since the tax credit expired and seeing what I see with the BPOs and inventory that is active that should not be active - it's a little hard NOT to be - just once in a while :wink:
Wanda: My gut feeling is I don't want a seller screaming at me in December when the home isn't selling!
I watched a show about Las Vegas Flipping this past weekend and it looked not for the faint of heart as this guy was buying foreclosures that were absolutely trashed and he had a lot of problems to deal with.
You can see my Las Vegas Market Report Graphs right here if you don't believe me.
Honesty is the best policy. I believe you!
Renee - Watch out, you may give realtors a good name. Telling people the truth is the exact opposite of what we have been known for. I agree with you, but I'm sure not many realtors have the same ethics that you have.
Morgan: Figure in holding costs and the possibility of graffiti or burglary during the vacant times. I would have anxiety attacks if I watched that show because I am living it!
Bruce: :)
Larry: HAHAHA! We will see. She didn't believe me at first.
Anyone considering a Las Vegas area home flip, should consult with you first. You know the numbers like no one else does and can give the client a clear picture of the local market.
Renee, what an irony. We are in a similar market as we were in the boom - where investors are scooping up properties to flip, and some of them are left holding the proverbial bag...haven't we already done this once a few years ago??? Congrats on your upfront honesty and ethics and for having the stats to back you up.
Renee, I think a lot of inexperienced people can make some huge mistakes in this market.
Hello Renee and some great words of advice and very well done post with URL attachments for reference!
Vegas Bob
Now, let's hope she listens. We're not seeing any flipping going on here right now. Prices are increasing in some neighborhoods but not those that investors would normally be interested in.
Renee -
I'm confident that there are investors from all over the country looking to Nevada believing all they have to do is buy at todays's low prices and then just wait a few years for things to get back to normal and make them a bundle.
I know there are many doctors, lawyers, merchant chiefs...and not a few accountants from here doing just that.
And they all figure they are the only people in the country looking to make the same bundle in the same way in the same place.
Some say that news travels fast. But sometimes it's flow is glacial.
Renee, the more I read about foreclosures and short sales the more I realize how bad Las Vegas really got hit with.. . the honest Realtors that have the best intentions for their clients are the ones that will last at the end. . you are one them!
Renee Good for you - there are too many out there that will sell anything to anybody at any time - your integrity is worth more than a fazt buck
Craig: Thanks :)
Frank & Sharon: True that. And heck, even though we stabilized and saw some slight appreciation over the last year, it was only 3%. Flips can be done but if you are swimming in murky waters and cannot see the sharks = not good!
Damon: I wanted to find out who this person was so I could consult with them. Nevermind, I don't have time for that!
Robert: just want people to know what types of transactions I am talking about here!
Tammie: Very true. We are seeing some areas upwards but I am definitely concerned about the growing inventory!
Jim: LOL you couldn't be more correct on that account! It seems like every sole investor thinks they are the first to come up with the bright idea -- in the mean time rents are going down because of the amount of investors we have in our market looking for long term holds!
Fernando: I don't sell a lot because I want to make sure that investors have a clear exit strategy and completely understand what they are getting into - with declining rents and all! Same with first time buyers - I want to make sure they understand the responsibility of homeownership.
Karen: Thanks :)
Get your feet firmly planted and let 'em have it Renee. If we're not out there telling them the way it is, who will?
Kevin: Like I said, I think of the future and I don't need to be dealing with somebody annoyed beyond belief because I was focused on *one sale*
I think you made the right choice for the right reasons, Renee.
Renee-that buyer should thank you for honest, no nonsense advice. There's a lot of agents out there who would have gladly helped her spend her cash, and told her she'd be able to turn a profit. You'll reap the rewards for being honest. Nice post:)
Bill & Erika: THANKS!
Your advice would be great in my market as well. I have a long term investor, and he won't buy right now at my advice either. It's to risky to flip right now, the margins aren't there. Telling people the truth is the only way to stay in business, I'm proud of you Renee! :)
Renee - I think there are so many that do have extra money that they think they can make a buck. And that is about it, a buck.
I agree the trustee sale is not the norm and that is where we are seeing a lot of rich get richer.
Lisa: Thanks :)
Ken: It isn't about the extra QUICK buck. Decent returns on long term rentals - yes. Be prepared for rental income going down too.
Thanks Renne for your honesty. I do go to the auction on Charleston & 4th a couple times per week and the bidders and title reps are saying the same thing as far as the margins are concerned.
Renee, I would think the homes purchased as rentals near the center of Vegas would be safe, but since I have never been to Vegas, what do I know! : ), other than I want to own a piece of property near the action if the economy recovers in the next decade!
You're realistic, and that speaks for you and your integrity. Perhaps, when the market levels off she'll call you back!
Renee,
Seems that investors' margins are tight indeed, at least for those who bought several months ago. Investing in Vegas' real estate isn't for the faint of heart right now.