Economic Conditions for the Las Vegas Valley July 2010
Housing Conditions:
- Foreclosure/Short Sale Listings (8/15/2010): Total Listings 13902; Short Sales: 6144, 44% of all listings; Bank Owned Listings: 2738, 20% of all listings. Short sale and REO listings consume 64% of total listings
- New Home Sales (July 2010, units sold): 323 Year Change -14.6% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
- New Home Sales (July 2010, median price): $195,000 Year Change -5.2% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
- Existing Home Sales (July 2010, units sold): 3611 Year Change -17.8%
- Existing Home Sales (July 2010, median price): $123,400 Year Change: -1.3%
- New Home Permits (July 2010): 371 Year Change -17.9%
- Rental Rate (MLS Monthly Average June 2010): $1410/month
My analysis: Distressed listings (foreclosures and short sales) are 64% of total listings up 1% from last month. This figure is slowly going up after many months of decline HOWEVER REO is emerging as a new life form (investor trustee sale purchase flips.) Credit markets must be watched as underwriting guidelines continue to tighten. Condos are barely financeable. Resale sold units and pendings remain impressive from the tax credit highs. Inventory IS increasing as pent up demand from first time buyers was exhausted from the tax credit offering that expired June 30, 2010. The rental market is softening due to all the investor/first time buyer combination of activity. This adds more supply and creates less demand.
New Residents/Employment Conditions:
- New Residents (July 2010): 4683, Year Change -3.3%
- Total Employment (July 2010): 801,300 Year Change -2.3%
- Unemployment
Rate (July 2010) 14.8%, Year Change +1.8%
My analysis: The tourism, gaming and convention numbers need to improve before these numbers improve. New Resident Count will continue to plummet if no new jobs are created. Economists are hoping that City Center brings tens of thousands of new jobs. The Las Vegas Valley has lost -135,400 jobs since April 2008. I am not optimistic that City Center can pull us out of this slump. (see Tourism/Gaming conditions below!) City Center is expected to draw in anywhere from 10,000-15,000 new jobs. Unfortunately around 8500 construction workers from the project will be unemployed so that really boils down to only 2500-7500 new jobs. Unemployment rate is painful yet again. While these numbers are looking VERY bad, I am seeing some changes in the Tourism/Gaming Sector which will help this sector in the long run if it is sustainable!!
Tourism/Gaming Conditions:
- McCarran Airport Total Passengers (July 2010): 3,518,217 Year Change -1.1%
- Gaming Revenue (June 2010): $640,096,466, Year Change -6.9%
- Visitor Volume (June 2010): 3,395,759, Year Change +3.5%
- Convention Attendance (June 2010): 351,731, Year Change -1.0%
- Hotel/Motel Occupancy (June 2010): 82.1% Year Change -0.1%
My analysis: Convention Attendance is Truggling again. This sector (tourism) needs to see some serious price corrections before we see a comeback. Corporate credit is not coming back any time soon. It will be hard to get convention attendance back up without corporate credit. Glad to see regular tourists are making their way here with the imbalance of the other numbers to replace the convention attendee numbers. Gaming numbers are back in the negative but thankfully not in the double digits like they have been in the recent past.
Sources: Salestraq, Home Builder's Research, Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, Nevada State Gaming Control Board, Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles, McCarran International Airport, Las Vegas Convention & Visitor's Authority, Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. My analysis is my humble opinion
As usual a great presentation... and the commentary and your points are view are excellent. I am keeping my fingers crossed that more jobs are created and that the economy will have sustained, yet slow growth.
Renee: Good golly woman! What a great, detailed post! I'd recommend it for a feature, but my button is broken. =(
Wouldn't you say that as long as the visitor count continues it's stability that you'll slowly climb out of this? This report has a lot of information to absorb. My concern would now be your rental market as the unemployment continues it's vicious path.
You are the numbers queen! Great job letting the folks know what's happening in your neck of the woods.
Wow, you have such beautiful blogs - amazing graphics and pictures. Man I have a ton to learn from you.
Very professional and informational post. Sure hoping the City Center is the shot in the arm Vegas needs!
So much information, not just on the housing market.
A wonderful example.
I don't do market reports... but you have inspired me.. I think I'll try one over the week-end.
My button's not broken :)
Joan: Yes we don't want anything too fast. We just need sustainable jobs!
Aaron: Why thank you for thinking about me and leaving me a comment ;)
Kevin: Rentals have been a major concern not only because people are leaving but the investor concentration is a smidge on the high side. Rents are sliding downwards which is good for the underemployed.
Craig: Thanks man :)
Debbie: Thanks, haha!
Erika: Ditto about city center. Unfortunately it isn't quite the "hit" that people thought it would be!
Judi: You are funny, let me know if you need assistance!
Renee
It looks like there has been a continued gradual growth since March; I hope it just keeps going for you.
Renee - Awesome Las Vegas Valley NV market report, a ton of good information and of course I love all of the graphs.
Renee- these are sobering statistics, despite the improvements. Great graphics, great information. I'm inspired!
Tom: Pretty big dip in jobs available scares me otherwise everything else looks like it is stabilizing!
Michelle: Thanks!
Marcie: Yes, very sobering!
Renee, my goodness what a great report and some great information. I mujst say you do a great job reporting on the real estate in your area!
Renee,
The price decline - although slight - does point toward some more tough months ahead. The expired tax credit has definitely removed many buyers from the marketplace.
Rebecca & Esko: Thanks for your comments :)