That basically Las Vegas' entry level new single family home standing inventory is virtually gone. Yes, we see the occasional fall out of escrow fire sale (see Brian Brady's post on what is going on!) The market is turning each and every day and soon the buyers in the new home market will feel the pain and lack patience with a long build and turn to the resale market to absorb some of that inventory.
Currently (just my unscientific poll from working with buyers) there is about a 4-6 month build out valley wide for the entry level (less than $300K) market. The builder I was speaking about in Brian Brady's above post has held their fire sale and already raised prices! This is a matter of TWO WEEKS since they lowered prices to a level which moved their standing inventory and dirt lots that are out 4-6 months. We are seeing incentives disappear and it is my humble opinion that the pain point for new home buyers to start jumping into the resale market will be a 10 month build.
It isn't unrealistic to see a 10 month build out in a matter of a couple of months when it was only a couple of months ago (November/December 2006) that the entry level single family market saw an abundance of standing inventory!
What this means for our inventory soaked resale market with 16708 (2/18/2007) single family homes currently listed with 1506 (2/18/2006) that currently closed in the last month is that if we see even 1000 more closings in the next month (we currently have 2756 pendings/contingents 2/18/2007)) that our single family home inventory will be cut from 11 months of inventory to 6 months of inventory instantly!
It is sensational to report of new home purchase incentives that includes pools, Cadillacs and plasma TVs. It isn't sensational to report that in January of 2007 Las Vegas Valley had the most January closings of new homes EVER and those incentives disappeared last fall.
It is sensational to report about new home starts being down. It isn't sensational to report that 2006 was our third best year of new home sales EVER in Las Vegas Valley.
It is sensational to report about an abundance of inventory. It isn't sensational to report economic conditions that could turn our market overnight.
It is sensational to report about stangant or lower prices. It isn't sensational to report about new product hitting the resale market that affects our stagnant median prices.
It is sensational to report about the rise in foreclosures. It isn't sensational to report about timeshares foreclosing and affecting our foreclosure rate.
It is sensational to report about how housing is unaffordable. It isn't sensational to report the 1 month of rental inventory that is on our market and we are watching rents rise quickly.
It isn't sensational to report that these statistics include our condo/townhome market that is incredibly saturated right now and is still in it's correction phase.
It isn't sensational to report that you should contact your trusted market real estate professional to figure out if it is the right time to buy the right product because statistics CAN be manipulated.
Sources: GLVAR, Salestraq
All the Best,
Realtor®
Nevada Realty Solutions - Your Dream, Your Investment, You\'re Home!
8942 Spanish Ridge Avenue
Las Vegas, NV 89148
direct: 702-580-1783
fax: 702-995-8237
Renee@ReneeBurrows.com
http://www.ReneeBurrows.com
Facinating market you have there, Renee. How do you keep up with it?
Joan
Right now, barely! We went from 13 months (total the above was SFR only) inventory to 12 months inventory overnight last night. I am tracking listings/pendings/closeds on a spread sheet because I sniff a change in the market. The pendings rose tremendously last week so I decided to start tracking. I will post that in the next couple of weeks if it plays out the way I think it will :)
Thank you for your comment!