So I was just accused of so many things in my recent post: "Stats" Surrounded by Doom & Gloom.
First I was accused of being a "cheerleader" instead of giving "accurate and impartial information" like Broker Bryant. Well I will honestly and openly admit I am NO Broker Bryant. No one can be sooooooooo good looking like him!
Here is another difference: Broker Bryant reports on real estate from his side of the earth: Florida. While I report on mine: Nevada. What forces drive the Florida market are completely different forces driving the Nevada market and it even gets more local than that!
I have to dispell myth and fact from fantasy because I deal with it on a DAILY basis! People hear prices are dropping. Well my phone starts ringing and I have to tell them WHY prices are dropping or <more accurately> WHY they appear to be dropping. Prices APPEAR to be dropping because of NEW entry level product entering our resale market from speculators. Read: Do Median & Average Sale Prices Mean Much in Your Market These Days? What is the media ever going to do and say NEXT year when our condo prices actually RISE at a good clip as the highrise resale market moderates and heats up? We have one high rise building closing a month and a glut of high rise resale inventory right now (38 months to be exact!)
SO I flippantly answer my accuser saying "who cares" about Las Vegas listings inventory! (Quite honestly inventory is a yawner like list prices.) And then I get this:
Now you might say "who cares?", but if I were a buyer in the LV market looking for a realtor, I'd want one that cared, and I'd want one who kept track of the number of new listings in order to help me understand the market conditions and get me the best deal possible.
Great, now I am a crappy Realtor because in the grand scheme of things I am trying to spread a little good news about a market that is feeling a turn. A really good turn! Does anyone understand what a NON-MOTIVATED seller is? Does anyone understand what a NOVICE SPECULATOR is? Does anyone know what PANIC selling is? Well that just about describes most of our listings. Nobody has anywhere to go.
Prices are holding tight because everyone wants to see their return or get their price or just throw their home on the market to make it a grand fishing expedition. (FYI: I just answered my questions in that paragraph!)
With all of that being said: 2006 was our second highest year for new construction closes and third highest year for resale closes (UNITS.) I don't like looking at it from an inventory perspective when we have so many micro-markets and NON-MOTIVATED SELLERS in our single market!
SO I get no apologies after I explained how I counseled a seller/buyer just last week about how she wants to sell her condo (14 months inventory) and move to an entry level single family home (less than 5 months inventory.) That is a HUGE challenge to make sure it works out right.
What starts out to be a blog post to dispel what was being said, turns out to be a post to debunk me period, no facts, figures or stats to refute. I posted on 1/11/2007 to even back up my claims. Back then there was almost no Las Vegas new construction standing inventory left in the entry level single family home market. I am seeing it filter into the resale entry level single family home market. That is all I was trying to say. For speculators, investors and home buyers to grasp. Is this not good news or what?
Sue me, I am a cheerleader!
Rah rah ree, kick em in the knee! Rah rah rass, kick em in the other knee!
PS: I love differing opinions and respect them but if you are going to come to my table with them, please bring some stats to back yourself up!
Excellent post! And so true. I'll never understand why we can get slammed for local information, from folks in different markets...(or for that matter, why folks in other markets are answering Q&A that's not their area, but I digress). GO right ahead and cheer-your clients KNOW you care because they know you're on top of your game.
Love that cheer! We believe in reporting the facts as we see them and as the market is realistically behaving. Of course we love the business and want to sell, sell, sell. However, we are still ethical people so although the truth sometimes hurts, it should be told. Fun post.
Renee,
Where did you learn that cheer. I bet it was a fun school. ( chuckles ) The Real Estate market this last couple of years has produced a great many opinions. In Portland, our problem has been what most west coasters have, that of Negative east coast news about real estate permeating all the news channels. Even the Local news channels report the negative and completely disregard the local condition. During the past 2 years our average sales price has increased 13 % More or Less each year. Yet all the buyers keep quoting how horrible a market it has been and why the must now demand a lower offering price.
I salute you for spreading a positive measure that is backed by facts and figures. ( to tired to edit my comment you will have to take it like it is )
Leigh: You make a great cheer coach :wink:
Lisa & Robert: It is frustrating more than it is fun :) How do we drive the point home?
Beth: Thanks for stopping by and the kind comments!
Herb: Thanks! Reversing the damage is so hard. No you aren't going to get a foreclosure at 30% LTV, no prices are not sliding blah blah blah. I try to be positive rather than be like a mom to a 2 year old but sometimes :ARGH:
That's my Girl your back! Give me an A Give me a TT give me an I and another T, Now give me a U, D and E! A-TT-I-T-U-D-E!
P.S. BB would have to go through an extreme Transition to match your beauty!
Completely agree with Mariana - - numbers change from street to street. It is very easy to make vague statements about the market and believe that you sound intelligent. It takes a little more effort to look at the numbers, digest them, and apply them to a very specific area.
I agree with Danny about the beauty thing =)
I also agree with Mariana and Heather. Real estate is not only local, it is ultra-hyper local. A neighborhood makes all the difference sometimes.
Keep cheering!
Looks like the Jack A$$ got you sided tracked... Let me offer a few words of wisdom - don't waste your time and effort trying to defend your figures to someone that hides in secrecy. If John S. had anything intelligent to say he wouldn't be afraid to show his face.
I agree the media numbers are usually twisted... Fact is... Gloom and Doom gets more attention in most scenarios... the exception may be selling real estate... Bouncy Bubbly people do better...!
Maybe you should stop using your brain and get rich playing the Air-Head Blond....
Oh come on! You're at least as good looking as Broker Bryant!
You are absolutely right that different states have different markets.
A very famous economist (whose name escapes me) recently came up with an algorithm to determine if an area was in a "bubble". (Man, I wish I could find that article.) It took into consideration everything from net population increase (Vegas? Big time!) to available jobs to whatever. It was a very big equation.
Anyway, Arizona isn't a "bubble state" according to this guy. Neither is Nevada. Florida is. Too fast an increase in home values and a large population on fixed income. Doesn't take a genius. But Arizona and Nevada? New homes going up EVERYWHERE, people moving in by the truckloads and that huge 99 cent hotdog you can get on the strip.
Hi Renee, I didn't realize my comments would be so inspiring. :) I didn't mean to upset you. I'm tempted to say more on this cheerleading topic, but I'll just move along for now. Anyway, I do enjoy your blog; it's always interesting, even when I do not agree.
One of my biggest problems with the media talking about the real estate bubble bursting is that, while prices in an area can indeed go down, they tend not to tank quickly. Real Estate prices are what they call, "Sticky" on the way down.
The reason for this is that while some people "have" to sell, other's don't. If I own a home and am thinking about selling it, but can't sell it for what I owe on it, I'll keep it. If I have to I can rent it out. It's comparison to a stock market bubble isn't a valid one, at least in most cases.
R.B. "Bob" Mitchell
ValueList Real Estate Services, Inc.
P.S. I think that you would look great in a cheerleader's outfit!