Economic Conditions for the Las Vegas Valley November 2008
Housing Conditions:
- Foreclosure/Short Sale Listings (1/12/2009): Total Listings 21034; Short Sales: 6580, 31% of all listings; Bank Owned Listings: 8072, 38% of all listings. Short sale and REO listings consume 70% of total listings
- New Home Sales (November 2008, units sold): 607 Year Change -56.3% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
- New Home Sales (November 2008, median price): $248,341 Year Change -10.5% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
- Existing Home Sales (November 2008, units sold): 2518 Year Change +79.0%
- Existing Home Sales (November 2008, median price): $173,900 Year Change: -31.5%
- New Home Permits (November 2008): 180 Year Change -44.8%
- Rental Rate (MLS Monthly Average December 2008): $1594/month
My analysis: Distressed listings (foreclosures and short sales) are 70% of total listings. Credit markets must be watched, it's hard to remain optimistic with all the bad news on Wall Street. Resales up units sold 79% year over year, this is due to prices falling dramatically year over year. Builders cannot compete with bank owned listing prices, thus sales remain lackluster.
New Residents/Employment Conditions:
- New Residents (December 2008): 4656, Year Change -26%
- Total Employment (November 2008): 927,600 Year Change -0.5%
- Unemployment
Rate (December 2008) 7.9%, Year Change +51.9%
My analysis: The tourism, gaming and convention numbers need to improve before these numbers improve. New Resident Count will go down if no new jobs are created.
Tourism/Gaming Conditions:
- McCarran Airport Total Passengers (November 2008): 3,234,352 Year Change -14.7%
- Gaming Revenue (November 2008): $702,587,313, Year Change -15.2%
- Visitor Volume (November 2008): 3,132,021, Year Change -10.3%
- Convention Attendance (November 2008): 503,545, Year Change -16.4%
- Hotel/Motel Occupancy (November 2008): 79.2% Year Change -8.9%
My analysis: Rising gas costs & flight cuts have hurt our incoming visitor count. Conventions, Visitor Volume, Airport Traffic all down double digits. Gaming revenue takes a hot. October, November and December's numbers need to be watched carefully. Hopefully low gas prices and incredible discounts from hotels and airlines will flip those numbers around. Conventions may remain dismal for a while due to lack of business credit available.
Sources: Salestraq, Home Builder's Research, Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, Nevada State Gaming Control Board, Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles, McCarran International Airport, Las Vegas Convention & Visitor's Authority, Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. My analysis is my humble opinion.
Renee:
The statistic on shorts and foreclosures are unbelievable. I see the lower prices are boosting existing home sales volume. Rising volume is good technically. Let's hope it continues.
Best,
Richard
Renee, OUCH. Wow, those numbers have to hurt. Luckily, you seem to be getting rid of inventory. I hope it turns around for you soon.